McCain has to hold Ohio and Florida, which I think he has a good shot at doing. If he loses either, this could be an early night.
According to my map below, there are 36 EV up for grabs.
As Virginia goes, so will this election. If Barack wins Virgina, McCain will have to win the other 4 to tie at 269. If McCain wins VA, then he needs either of the 2 western states. Not impossible given his Western roots. Barack has put a lot of money into VA and CO (4 to 1 in some markets) and will probably turn CO blue. Dallas, get to work!!
NH is a wild card with McCain's history in the state. I think Barack's socialist heart will hurt him a lot in the state with the motto "Live Free or Die". Other wildcards are the congressional districts of NE and ME. McCain is running well in the one ME district that could get him 1 EV. This might make the difference.
Signing off...JCB
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