"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt." -- JP Curran, 1790

Monday, October 27, 2008

State of the Race: McCain's limited opportunities

This is where we are at with 8 days to go.

McCain has to hold Ohio and Florida, which I think he has a good shot at doing. If he loses either, this could be an early night.

According to my map below, there are 36 EV up for grabs.

As Virginia goes, so will this election. If Barack wins Virgina, McCain will have to win the other 4 to tie at 269. If McCain wins VA, then he needs either of the 2 western states. Not impossible given his Western roots. Barack has put a lot of money into VA and CO (4 to 1 in some markets) and will probably turn CO blue. Dallas, get to work!!

NH is a wild card with McCain's history in the state. I think Barack's socialist heart will hurt him a lot in the state with the motto "Live Free or Die". Other wildcards are the congressional districts of NE and ME. McCain is running well in the one ME district that could get him 1 EV. This might make the difference.

Signing off...JCB

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