"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt." -- JP Curran, 1790

Thursday, October 2, 2008

EC Average - Bradley Effect = Tie?!

Bradley Effect: A negative variance between poll numbers and actual voting for a minority candidate. Attributed to LA Mayor Tom Bradley who lost his bid for CA Governor in 1982 despite being ahead in most polls.
Most liberals would attribute this to racist whites, but that is hardly the whole story. My opinion is that guilt and apathy are the real forces at play. Guilt in that when you ask someone in a public setting (i.e. survey, interview) they psychologically avoid racial landmines. When in reality they may not favor that candidate for practical-issues related reasons. Obama will likely see a lot of this, people feeling like they have a moral/historical obligation to put the first minority in the Executive. Apathy can be attributed to the voting habits of many of Obama's core constituencies; youth, blacks, trendy liberals. Every election we hear about how the youth vote is expected to be strong, and they usually disappoint. The trendy liberals are those who support liberal causes in breath only. These are the people who are swayed in their vote based on Matt Damon's opinion.

Obama does have core constituencies that have higher turnouts; Hispanics & blue collar union members. But McCain trumps these with key groups that consistently have the highest voter turn-outs; elderly & those who attend some form of religious worship regularly.

So since even the liberal political analysts are predicting a +2-3% error in polls vs. voting based on race I figured I'd apply that to the current EC averages.
This first graphic is the EC Avg. map from RealClearPolitics from 10/2:

This next graphic is adjusted to give McCain a +3% in state-by-state averages:

The result is a 269-269 tie! So if the Bradley Effect holds true, this race is a lot closer than it may appear.
Remember this, people vote out of fear and love. Fear and then Love.
Signing off....JCB
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  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  2. The media wants to call this one early, it seems. All Obama, all the time. Real hard-working Americans have better things to do with their time than take 100 polls a day.


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