"It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt." -- JP Curran, 1790

Thursday, November 13, 2008

A historical guide to the future of Conservatism: Part 1

As I wrote in a previous post, the Obama victory in 2008 was significant but not historic. There was only a slight change in the electorate from 2004. Karl Rove published a similar article in the Wall Street Journal analyzing the 2008 numbers.

As my analysis will show, it has been part of a growing momentum by the Democrats that finally had the right mouthpiece. Despite the hungry encircling wolves, Conservatism is wounded but not dead. It can be resurrected with the right ideas and leadership.

I will be framing this analysis around the past, but focusing on where we need to go to restore conservatism. This will be a multi-part series that will breakdown the different demographics, what the macro & micro trends are, and how we can apply our Principles to where they are headed.

Part 1: Popular Voting in aggregate
Obama won the Popular Vote by 6% (53-46%). While that may seem substantial compared to Bush's 3% and Gore in 2000, by historical accounts it is only an average margin of victory. Bill Clinton won by 8% in 1996, as did George H.W. Bush in 1988. Setting the victory celebrations aside, there is a noticeable trend in the popular vote gains by Democrats since 1984. Some would say that they had no where to go but up at that point, but they have sustained a steady growth the past 24 years. Republican meanwhile have received a downward trend in the popular voting during that same time frame. While there have been some ups and downs, it has trended statistically downward.


As my further analysis will show, there is not a single specific demographic that can be attributed to these aggregate trends. Rather it is a complex set of circumstances that damaged the Republican brand and got us to this point.

Part 2: Popular vote trends by Gender

Signing off...JCB

Source: http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html
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