A historical guide to the future of Conservatism: Part 7

A conclusion of my series; A historical guide to the future of Conservatism.

Previous Parts:

• Part 1: Popular Voting in Aggregate
• Part 2: Gender and Race
• Part 3: Age and Religion
• Part 4: Regional and Population Size
• Part 5: Eduction and Income
• Part 6: Voting Patterns and Party ID

Part 7: Conclusion and Summary

I began writing this series last month as means to analyze the recent history of elections, exit polls, and demographics to understand the future of Conservatism. After the defeat of 2008, it is important to reflect on the failures, look back, learn, and apply the lessons towards a new future. Conservatism will return to power, the question is how long it will take to get there, will it be a lasting return, what Principles and ideals will be held, and how will we get there.

Highlights of the Key Takeaways:

• Obama's popular vote margin of victory (6%) was less that George H.W. Bush (1988) and Bill Clinton (1992) but is the result of steady growth by Democrats since 1984.
• Conservatives need to hold the majority of Men and reverse the trend toward Democrats among women
• Conservatives cannot be a majority party with +90% of blacks voting Democrat, look for sub-segment of socially conservative Blacks to target
• Hispanics are the best opportunity to improve among minorities, they are a growing population with a volatile history towards both parties.
• Although a small percentage of voters, Asians are swing voters in key states.
• Restore the trend of growth among White Men and White Women that was interrupted in 2008.
• Improve and reverse the trend of 18-29 going Democrat, restore grassroots and get-out-the-vote advantages and build the future
• Recapture the 30-44 year old voters, win young families and convert aging Democratic youth
• Hold a majority among the +60 year olds, as baby boomers age they can be a consistent and reliable voter pool
• Build upon core constituencies of White Protestants, Born again Evangelicals, and those who attend service regularly
• Improve our numbers within the Jewish community by professing our solidarity with Israel and foreign policy Principles
• Win the battle for White Catholic votes, they are a bellwether. Carefully watch the changes of the U.S. Catholic Church and highlight "Life" issues to keep the Pro-Life voter.
• Reverse the declining numbers in urban areas, learn the lessons of Bush's impressive numbers in 2004
• Continue to grow in the 10K-50K population range and dominate the Rural vote more heavily
• Own the Suburban vote, it is key to victory across the board
• Look for in-roads back into the Northeast in congressional, state-level, and governorships, we cannot write-off New England
• Target key Midwestern states that have swung back and forth
• Hold the core south. Reverse trends in VA, NC, FL, and GA.
• Look West! Recapture the West. 2010 means new Electoral shifts to this area. Its growing in importance in EV numbers.
• Identify states that we have won recently but are trending Democrat and invest (MT, GA, etc.) (2000, 2004, and 2008)
• Identify states we've lost but are trending Republican (MN, PA, NJ, OH, etc.) (2000, 2004, and 2008)
• Learn from the macro-view of the regional shifts from the past. Don't just rely on strengths in states because that is all you'll be left with. Target new states to swing to the Blue! (1936 to 1956 , 1956 to 1964, 1964 to 1972, 1972 to 1988, 1988 to 1996, 1996 to 2004, and 2004 to 2008 )
• Reverse Democrat growth among the less educated, present working class policies that embrace the opportunity to advance.
• Reclaim a majority of those with some college or college grad, present intelligent ideas without intellectual snobbishness
• Stop the slide among those with Post-Grad degrees
• Interrupt Democrats impressive margins and growth among those making less than $30K
• Securing a majority among the majority of voters, those making between $30K - $75K
• Return to growth among those making more than $75K, make 2008 a fluke
• Win a significant margin of those who will feel Worse Today in 2012
• Minimize the margin of those who will feel Better Today in 2012
• Find a way to split those who will feel the Same Today in 2012.
• In these very polarized times, hold a large percentage of Conservatives and win a greater than 40% of Moderates.
• Reverse Obama's gains among those who previously voted Republican
• Capture 15-20% of those who previously voted Democrat
• Upgrade voter turnout efforts to narrow the gap to within 10% of the Democrats for First Time Voters

Through this analysis I have learned that although the numbers show only a slight difference in aggregate from 2004, the Conservative base has been eroding for some time. The 2008 election can be the match for Liberal dominance or the capstone of a long ascension to power. Conservatives have a choice. We can make this the peak as we start our new rise to power and their slow decline or we can ignore the signs and continue a disjointed assault while we continue to hold the minority in a Liberal Era.

It is gut check time for Conservatives. Now it the time to re-evaluate who we are, what we stand for, what we want to be, and who we allow to carry our banner. The Republican Party is a standard bearer of Conservatism, but it has strayed from the pasture. In 1992, the GOP learned this lesson and 2008 needs to serve as a reminder. This will take some time. We will fight for gains in 2010 and 2012. But, strategically we need to build a long-term majority rather than a dramatic short-lived ascension.

• Let us work to clearly define our Principles and march towards those.
• Let us rid ourselves of convenient victories that sacrifice the integrity of our Principles.
• Let us assuage the people with intelligent and practical ideas and realistic application of our Principles.
• Let us stand against the compromise, contradiction, or condemnation of our Principles.
• Let us challenge our adversaries and win the tactical battles of this long war.

The future is ours to shape.

Signing off...JCB

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