Obama stock is over priced, get ready for the sell off

For all the coverage of Obama's approval ratings coming in, Dick Morris must be in the minority of those who are pessimistic about the future.

Obama has no where to go but down. This balloon is has been over inflated. He has tried to let the air out with pessimistic assessments of the economy but the inauguration countered that. With the extravagances of a monarchy and the gushing coverage of a celebrity wedding (Michelle's attire) Obama has likely peeked.

Compared to past Presidents, those who started out hot (Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter) fell hard. Now that he has to make decisions, we will get a sense of reality again.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-presapp0605-31.html

Signing off...JCB Sphere: Related Content

68% of the active duty military not optimistic about Obama

According to a Military Times poll, 68% of active duty military members are not optimistic about Obama as their Commander in Chief!! 35% are uncertain and 25% are pessimistic!

In the same survey, over half thought that President Bush had their best interest at heart. Staggering opinions from the people Obama will rely on to end the war in Iraq, win the long war in Afghanistan, defend this country and its freedom.

As a former military member and combat veteran I know that on the ground it doesn't matter who your Commander in Chief is. The only thing that matters is the mission in front of you. Like all citizens of this country, when you step away from the front, you have to ask who is issuing the orders and why?

I started my military career under President Clinton and proudly ended it under the command of President Bush and I am uncertain of President-elect Obama as our next Commander in Chief.

Signing off...JCB Sphere: Related Content

The little campaign that could...

While every pundit and MSM news outlet continues to write-off McCains' chances, he continues to chip away at BO's lead.

With a week left to go, it is amazing the tide of pessimistic reporting for McCain. Given that his gap in polls is within the margin of error and that he is closing the gap (even in polls that had him behind 10% last week), I think he is making a late surge and could win this election!! Some of the articles I've read today help solidify my optimism.

Rasmussen has him within 3%
Gallup has him within 2%
RCP average (greatly skewed by the +10% polls lately) has him within 5.9%

Dick Morris makes that case that the remaining undecideds will break for McCain
Boston Globe article: McCain has a real chance at PA

Watch the Catholic vote

Get excited people!! 7 days to go and the comeback kid is on the ride!!

Signing off...JCB Sphere: Related Content

Is there still hope for McCain?

Some sources of hope:

IBD/TIPP survey: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY3.html

Rove sees light: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411909182439021.html

A McCain electoral strategy:

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EC Average - Bradley Effect = Tie?!

Bradley Effect: A negative variance between poll numbers and actual voting for a minority candidate. Attributed to LA Mayor Tom Bradley who lost his bid for CA Governor in 1982 despite being ahead in most polls.

Most liberals would attribute this to racist whites, but that is hardly the whole story. My opinion is that guilt and apathy are the real forces at play. Guilt in that when you ask someone in a public setting (i.e. survey, interview) they psychologically avoid racial landmines. When in reality they may not favor that candidate for practical-issues related reasons. Obama will likely see a lot of this, people feeling like they have a moral/historical obligation to put the first minority in the Executive. Apathy can be attributed to the voting habits of many of Obama's core constituencies; youth, blacks, trendy liberals. Every election we hear about how the youth vote is expected to be strong, and they usually disappoint. The trendy liberals are those who support liberal causes in breath only. These are the people who are swayed in their vote based on Matt Damon's opinion.

Obama does have core constituencies that have higher turnouts; Hispanics & blue collar union members. But McCain trumps these with key groups that consistently have the highest voter turn-outs; elderly & those who attend some form of religious worship regularly.

So since even the liberal political analysts are predicting a +2-3% error in polls vs. voting based on race I figured I'd apply that to the current EC averages.

This first graphic is the EC Avg. map from RealClearPolitics from 10/2:

This next graphic is adjusted to give McCain a +3% in state-by-state averages:

The result is a 269-269 tie! So if the Bradley Effect holds true, this race is a lot closer than it may appear.

Remember this, people vote out of fear and love. Fear and then Love.

Signing off....JCB

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