Predictions for the Obama Presidency

A list of predictions for the Obama Presidency:

- We will see less than 50% of Americans paying income taxes

- We will see the credibility of U.S. Treasury Bonds, arguably the most secured investment, questioned with historical deficits

- Guantanamo Bay may close, but a replacement will be erected in its place somewhere else in the world

- Obama will be re-elected under the perception that he ended the war in Iraq and the economy is in recovery

- Republicans will return to the Majority in the Senate and House by 2016

- When he leaves office there will be no more diversity in the U.S. Congress than there is today

- Blue Dog Democrats will be outcasts and will have to be courted for votes on tough economic issues

- Obama will attempt but will be prevented from nationalizing Healthcare

- Obama's stimulus package will pass but little of it will be spent before 2011

- Obama's policies will reduce the production of coal and the number coal related jobs by 2012

- The DJIA will not return to +10K before 2012

- The top tax bracket will be +65% in Federal Income Taxes, +80% in total income

- Zero legislation will be passed impacting illegal immigration

- Strategic ground forces will exit Iraq in accordance with the signed SOFA under President Bush, but support forces will remain indefinitely

- His approval numbers will be below 50% before the 2012 election

- Obama and his foreign policy team will embrace a less prominent role in international relations, bowing to the U.N. and failing to counter the rise of China, India, and Russia

- For the first time since the French Revolution, fewer people will enjoy freedom and liberty in the world

- Iran and at least 3 other nation states will become nuclear capable

- Unemployment will hit 10% by 2011 and will not see single digits until after 2013

- The U.S. will suffer a terrorist attack, likely a dirty bomb in a major city center. Sphere: Related Content

State of the Race: Final analysis and predications

Here we are, Election Day! One final look at the campaign and observation guide to tonight's reporting.

First, My view of the state of the race. There are Tier1 toss-ups (true toss-ups) and Tier2 toss-ups (leaning and hopeful pick-ups).
















Lets start with the Tier 2 states.
Leaning Blue:

• CO (9) - The historical GOP stronghold has recently been trending blue. This is the cornerstone of the Dem. Western Strategy in 2008. They held their convention in Denver and have invested heavily in Hispanic turnout.
• MN (10) - A historic DEM stronghold. Hasn't voted GOP since Nixon, but has been trending red recently. Bush narrowly lost MN in both 2000 and 2004. Hotly contested Senate and House races in key GOP districts along with very conservative and/or very liberal candidates in those races give McCain a shot with the higher turnout.
• PA (21) - A battleground state that has typically gone blue. BO is counting on high turnout in the black urban eastern areas around Philly. McCain is hoping that a combination of Murtha's mouth, Barack's coal comments, and the inspiring Barletta campaign will help turn this large state red.
• NH (4) - Always a wild-card. The "Live Free, or Die" state has a history of coming through for McCain when he needs it most. It was the catalyst of his primary comeback. There is a tough fought Senate campaign and McCain hopes that this anti-tax state hears his message on BO's tax policies.

Leaning Red:

• MO (11) - This historical bellwether state has been trending red lately but will be hotly contested once again. BO will rely on the DEM strongholds of St. Louis and KC for high turnout.
• IN (11) - This historically strong GOP state is a battleground for the first time since 1960. BO is counting on heavy bleed-over from IL into Gary and the Northern border to turn this state red. Southern IN is very conservative. McCain's biggest obstacle is the efficient campaigning of Senator Evan Bayh.
• NC (15) - Another historical GOP stronghold that is in contention this year. Many Northern transplants have turned this state more blue in the past 3-5 years. Companies have concentrated in the Research Triangle with is lower taxes and relocated many New England and Mid-Atlantic employees. Only MN has as many hotly contested races this year. The Senate race between Dole & Hagan will generate massive turnouts. McCain hopes to hold strong in the west and eastern military communities.
• FL (27) - The infamous state of recent lore. FL is a strong GOP state in state politics. In Federal elections the Miami DEMS, Jewish NY transplants, and colleges tend to balance the state. McCain looks to hold the panhandle, northern districts, heavy Cuban vote, and a surprising number of Jewish voters persuaded by Joe Leibs. The central part of the state is where the election will be decided.

On to the Tier1 (Real toss-up) states:

• NV (5) - No matter how you pronounce it, Nevada has been a toss-up in the past few elections. BO will hope for strong Hispanic turnout and heavy voter concentration from the Las Vegas area. McCain will hope to hold the rest of the state and capitalize on many of the Western transplants to the Vegas suburbs (fastest growing city in the U.S. the past 5 years) that have made the area more competitive.
• NM (5) - The quiet battleground. This state has had the closest margin of victory on average in the past 3 elections. It will be hotly contested. McCain hopes the White v. Heinrich contest will help. He faces a strong state favorite in Bill Richardson, who has certainly helped BO navigate this complex state.
• OH (20) - This is where the 2 candidates have fought the hardest. This is ground zero of the fist fighting. There are a few House races that may help McCain. But this is the state to watch. McCain hopes to hold the Cincinnati and Columbus strongholds. BO will look for strong turnout in Dayton and Cleveland. Watch the potential legal battles over voter registration fraud. The Secretary of State is DEM and has made some recent decisions that may be contested.
• VA (13) - This traditionally strong GOP state is the #1 target for the DEMs this year. BO has outspend McCain 4 to 1 in some markets. McCain will hope that BO Coal comments and social conservatives in the west will come out. BO is relying on the Eastern D.C. bleed-over voters to help turn this state blue. BO has been aided by some very savvy state DEMs (Kaine & Warner).

So now you know what I'll be watching in the state-by-state calls. A word of caution, ignore the MSM exit poll predictions. They have been skewed in the past and this year will be heavy BO. Mark my words, they will have to retract a called state (FL circa 2000).

My predictions:
McCain holds OH, IN, MO, NC, and FL. He picks up NM narrowly and upsets in PA due to high turnout in Western PA. He will be close in MN and NV. BO will easily win CO and VA.

Look for too-close-to-call on the following states late into the night:
PA, OH, VA, NC, and NM.

Look for post-election legal battles in these states if things are really tight:
NM & OH.

State with the tightest margin of victory:
NM

State most likely for the networks to call early have to recall:
PA

I leave you with a joke:
Barack Obama has proposed "Change". His supports are obsessed with the thought of "Change". Well if he gets elected, all we'll have left in our pockets is.... change!

Signing off...JCB

Update: Good to see McCain focusing on the states he needs to deliver my predicted results; "Before the day was over, McCain and his two charter planes had touched down in Florida, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona." Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/03/AR2008110303465.html?hpid=topnews

Hitting Western PA: http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_596682.html Sphere: Related Content

Election Eve: Gov./Senate/House races that will help GOP turnout for McCain

Tomorrow is Election Day. Polls have tightened.

Late breaking news may sway some of the Battleground voters:

1. Obama = Bankrupt the Coal industry comments could hurt in Ohio, Penn, and VA.
2. Palin = Cleared in Troopergate, helps with swing vote women in FL and the midwest

What helps McCain are the states where there are hotly contest Governor, Senate, and House races. As everyone talks about Dem voter turnout this year, watch these races help draw higher turnout of the conservative base. Some states where he will benefit:

1. New Hampshire = Sununu is in a hard fought race for his Senate seat
2. Minnesota = Coleman v. Franken (No Franken Way!) is one of the most expensive Senate races ever. Also Michele Bachman in a conservative House district could help McCain's numbers there significantly. Paulsen v. Madia (long held GOP stronghold)
3. Penn = Russell v. Murtha in Western PA, Barletta v. Kanjorski (heavy GOP territory)
4. NM = White v. Heinrich
5. NC = Kissell v. Hayes, Dole v. Hagan, and Perdue v. McCrory.
6. FL = Feeney v Kosmas, Rooney v. Mahoney (heavy GOP territory), Diaz-Balart v. Garcia in a heavy Cuban voting Miami suburb, Keller v. Grayson
7. OH = Stivers v. Kilroy, Chabot v. Driehaus
8. NV = Porter v. Titus (battleground counties for NV)

To quote the radio announcer from Game 6 of the greatest World Series ever, in which the MN Twins beat the ATL Braves on a Kirby Puckett Home Run; "We'll see ya tomorrow night!"

Sorry Dallas, I guess ATL got its payback in '98 against the Vikes.

Signing off...JCB

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McCain: Surging to the end

McCain is fighting. His surge may be enough in some states to make a difference. In others it just won't be enough. Tomorrow will tell.

Could Minnesota turn RED!?! Being from MN, I'm happy to see it's close but I don't see McCain over taking Obama.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/03/could-mccain-win-minnesota/

A guide to watching election outcomes tomorrow night:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11022008/photos/news004a.jpg

State-by-state breakdown:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20081101/tpl-us-usa-politics-states-20b2d2f.html Sphere: Related Content

State of the Race: McCain's limited opportunities

This is where we are at with 8 days to go.

McCain has to hold Ohio and Florida, which I think he has a good shot at doing. If he loses either, this could be an early night.

According to my map below, there are 36 EV up for grabs.

As Virginia goes, so will this election. If Barack wins Virgina, McCain will have to win the other 4 to tie at 269. If McCain wins VA, then he needs either of the 2 western states. Not impossible given his Western roots. Barack has put a lot of money into VA and CO (4 to 1 in some markets) and will probably turn CO blue. Dallas, get to work!!

NH is a wild card with McCain's history in the state. I think Barack's socialist heart will hurt him a lot in the state with the motto "Live Free or Die". Other wildcards are the congressional districts of NE and ME. McCain is running well in the one ME district that could get him 1 EV. This might make the difference.

Signing off...JCB

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